![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() This study is conducted using observations from the Snow Telemetry Network, root zone soil moisture and groundwater data from the Western Land Data Assimilation Systems, and a random forest–based statistical forecasting framework. This question is critical because the most effective investment strategy for improving forecasts depends on if errors arise before or after the snowpack season. We investigate the relative importance of meteorological and hydrological conditions occurring before and after the snowpack season in predicting seasonal runoff in western Colorado. The roles of such factors were scrutinized in 20: seasonal runoff was much lower than expectations based on snowpack values alone. Antecedent hydrological conditions, such as root zone soil moisture and groundwater storage, and weather conditions following peak snowpack also impact seasonal runoff. Forecasts made with this information allow water managers to plan for the season ahead. Cool season precipitation and snowpack have historically been robust predictors of seasonal runoff in western Colorado. Annual spring and summer runoff from western Colorado is relied upon by 40 million people, six states, and two countries. ![]()
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